ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162009 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 18 2009 A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF MARTY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH RECENTLY CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA HAVE BEGUN TO WARM. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS WERE 2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 1200 UTC...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. A QUIKSCAT PASS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME INFORMATION ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF MARTY SHORTLY. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL TO INCREASE TO OVER 20 KT WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND MARTY WILL BE MOVING INTO A DRIER ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND OVER COOLER SSTS. ALL OF THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING... WITH MARTY EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR TWO...AND DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM. AN AMSU PASS AT 0906 UTC SUGGESTED THAT MARTY WAS LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 305/06. AS MARTY BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM ...IT WILL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE WEST SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. THE NEW FORECAST IS ALSO FASTER...TRENDING TOWARD THE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 20.4N 114.8W 35 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 21.0N 115.6W 30 KT 24HR VT 19/1200Z 21.8N 116.8W 30 KT 36HR VT 20/0000Z 22.4N 118.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 20/1200Z 22.5N 119.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 21/1200Z 22.5N 122.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:28 UTC