ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162009 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 18 2009 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME DISRUPTED BY SHEAR AND NOW CONSISTS OF A SHAPELESS CLOUD MASS WITH VANISHING CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER WHICH IN FACT...IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 2.5 AND 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY... SUGGESTING THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY CAN BE LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS. HOWEVER...MARTY COULD BE ALREADY WEAKER AT THIS TIME. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW STRONG SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE AND MOST LIKELY...THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME DECOUPLED WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS...AND MARTY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. SINCE THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 320/5. MARTY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM...SO IT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE WEST STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED UNANIMOUSLY BY TRACK GUIDANCE AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0900Z 20.4N 114.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 18/1800Z 20.9N 114.9W 30 KT 24HR VT 19/0600Z 21.8N 116.0W 25 KT 36HR VT 19/1800Z 22.5N 117.0W 25 KT 48HR VT 20/0600Z 22.5N 118.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 21/0600Z 22.5N 120.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:28 UTC