ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162009 200 PM PDT THU SEP 17 2009 THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THIS MORNING. MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND IS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 AND 2.0 RESPECTIVELY FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SOLID AREA OF WINDS AROUND 35 KT. BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT. MARTY IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT... CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND MARTY IS PREDICTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS AT OR JUST BELOW THE CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. MARTY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING ON A TRACK BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS MOTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...MARTY IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH AND WESTWARD AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES JUST NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 19.7N 113.2W 40 KT 12HR VT 18/0600Z 20.1N 113.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 18/1800Z 20.8N 114.6W 35 KT 36HR VT 19/0600Z 21.7N 115.7W 30 KT 48HR VT 19/1800Z 22.3N 116.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 20/1800Z 22.5N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 21/1800Z 22.5N 121.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:28 UTC