ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162009 800 AM PDT WED SEP 16 2009 EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. A 1305 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED SOME BELIEVABLE 35 KT WIND VECTORS...AND THIS IS THE BASIS FOR UPGRADING THE DEPRESSION TO A TROPICAL STORM...THE THIRTEENTH OF THE 2009 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. MARTY HAS ABOUT A 24-HOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SLOWLY DECREASING SSTS WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A FASTER RATE OF DEMISE. THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY. HOWEVER... MARTY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN AROUND 72 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 325/3. THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MARTY IS CURRENTLY WITHIN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING FLOW....BUT A WEAK RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 18.9N 112.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 19.3N 112.6W 40 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 19.8N 112.8W 45 KT 36HR VT 18/0000Z 20.6N 113.1W 40 KT 48HR VT 18/1200Z 21.4N 113.3W 30 KT 72HR VT 19/1200Z 23.0N 114.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 20/1200Z 24.0N 114.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:28 UTC