ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009 200 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009 KEVIN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE MOST RECENT ONE DEVELOPING JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. A 0454 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A BAND OF 25-30 KT WINDS OCCURRING SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KEVIN HAS BEEN ISOLATED FROM ITS MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SOURCE OF MOISTURE...AND INFRARED IMAGERY NOW SHOWS MORE STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN KEVIN...AND THE FORECAST CALLS FOR IT TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE STEERING FLOW AROUND KEVIN HAS COLLAPSED DUE TO A NEARBY MID- LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 010/4. THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES THAT KEVIN SHOULD CEASE ITS NORTHWARD MOTION IN A DAY OR TWO AND THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...STILL MOVING VERY SLOWLY. LITTLE MOTION IS SHOWN IN THE FORECAST BY 24-48 HOURS WITH KEVIN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS AS SHOWN IN THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0900Z 18.0N 121.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 01/1800Z 18.4N 121.5W 25 KT 24HR VT 02/0600Z 18.7N 121.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 02/1800Z 18.8N 121.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 03/0600Z 18.7N 121.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:25 UTC