ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009 800 PM PDT THU SEP 03 2009 JIMENA HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER AND BASED ON A DVORAK T-NUMBER OF 2.5 FROM TAFB...THE SYSTEM REMAINS A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM. MODERATE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER OF JIMENA REMAINS OVER THE WARM WATER OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IT COULD REMAIN A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM LONGER SHOWN BELOW. THE TRACK MODELS GENERALLY PREDICT A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION TO COMMENCE VERY SOON...WHICH WOULD TAKE JIMENA BACK OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT...BUT DUE TO THE SOUTHEASTWARD DRIFT THAT HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON...THE NEW FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 27.5N 111.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 27.3N 111.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 05/0000Z 27.1N 112.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 05/1200Z 26.8N 112.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 06/0000Z 26.5N 113.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:24 UTC