ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009 200 PM PDT THU SEP 03 2009 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE EXPOSED CENTER OF JIMENA OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ALL OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED EAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY WIND SHEAR. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 1640 UTC SHOWED A COUPLE OF 40-45 KT WIND VECTORS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE WINDS HAVE LIKELY CONTINUED TO DECREASE SINCE THAT TIME AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT. JIMENA SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT AND DETERIORATE TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND STRONG SHEAR. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY WEST OR SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL TOTAL DISSIPATION IN A FEW DAYS. THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH JIMENA IS HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 27.8N 112.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 27.8N 112.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 27.5N 113.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 05/0600Z 27.0N 113.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 05/1800Z 26.5N 114.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:24 UTC