ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122009 800 PM PDT WED AUG 26 2009 MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IGNACIO HAS DISSIPATED AND WHAT LITTLE REMAINS IS OCCURRING WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THERE HAVE BEEN NO NEW SCATTEROMETER PASSES OVER THE CYCLONE AND DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. A CONTINUED GRADUAL SPIN DOWN OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR MASS. IGNACIO SHOULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION TOMORROW AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED AND THE MOTION IS A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT AS COMPARED TO EARLIER TODAY. IGNACIO IS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH. AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES STEERED MAINLY BY THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE LEFT IS ANTICIPATED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0300Z 23.4N 125.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 27/1200Z 24.7N 126.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 28/0000Z 26.3N 128.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 28/1200Z 27.4N 129.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 29/0000Z 27.9N 131.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 30/0000Z 28.0N 133.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:23 UTC