ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009 800 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2009 CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH OVER THE CENTER OF DOLORES AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COLDER WATERS. DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 1200 UTC WERE 2.0. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...BUT IT IS ASSUMED TO BE SOUTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER...WHICH STILL APPEARED TO BE WELL-DEFINED IN A TRMM PASS AROUND 0800 UTC. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/16. THE TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SHOWING A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK TURNING MORE TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW. THIS TRACK IS BETWEEN THE HWRF AND GFDL AND SOUTH OF MOST OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS... WHICH TAKE A DEEPER CYCLONE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG 140W. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS. DOLORES COULD DISSIPATE EVEN SOONER THAN SHOWN HERE...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL...IF CONVECTION DOES NOT REFORM NEAR THE CENTER LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 18.9N 120.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 20.1N 122.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 21.4N 125.6W 30 KT 36HR VT 18/0000Z 22.3N 128.3W 25 KT 48HR VT 18/1200Z 23.2N 130.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 19/1200Z 24.5N 135.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:19 UTC