ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009 200 PM PDT SUN JUL 12 2009 CARLOS HAS CONTINUED IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS TO SHOW A DETERIORATION OF ITS CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. WHILE TAFB/SAB DVORAK AND ADT CURRENT INTENSITY VALUES SUGGEST AROUND 65-75 KT...THE DATA T NUMBERS AND MOST RECENT IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE HAS DROPPED BELOW HURRICANE FORCE. MOREOVER...THE EXTENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTRACTED WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST EXTENDING ONLY ABOUT 200 NM IN DIAMETER. THUS THE WIND RADII ARE CONTRACTED FROM THAT INDICATED EARLIER. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/9. THE POSITION HAS MORE CERTAINTY THAN EARLIER TODAY DUE TO A FORTUITOUS SSMIS PASS AT 1535Z. CARLOS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST. THE RELIABLE GLOBAL AND HURRICANE MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...EXCEPT FOR THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS WHICH TAKE THE CYCLONE SUBSTANTIALLY FARTHER NORTHWARD. THIS BEHAVIOR MAY BE DUE TO THE OVERLY LARGE-SIZED VORTEX IN THE NOGAPS MODEL. THE TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE REMAINING TRACK MODELS ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION...WHICH WAS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST. IT STILL IS A BIT OF MYSTERY WHY THE CYCLONE WEAKENED AS MUCH AS IT HAS TODAY. THE GFDL AND HWRF DYNAMICAL MODELS INSIST ON A SUBSTANTIAL RE-INTENSIFICATION...WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES ONLY BRING CARLOS BACK UP A FEW KNOTS. THERE DOES EXIST A TWO TO THREE DAY WINDOW FOR CARLOS TO RESTRENGTHEN AS IT TRAVERSES OVER WARM WATERS AND THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND MOIST UNSTABLE AIR. AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...THE CYCLONE WILL ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS AND MORE VERTICAL SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE PREVIOUS PREDICTION AND THE MORE CONSERVATIVE CONSENSUS TECHNIQUE...ICON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 10.3N 121.9W 60 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 10.4N 123.6W 65 KT 24HR VT 13/1800Z 10.5N 126.1W 70 KT 36HR VT 14/0600Z 10.7N 128.5W 75 KT 48HR VT 14/1800Z 10.9N 130.7W 75 KT 72HR VT 15/1800Z 11.5N 135.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 16/1800Z 12.5N 139.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 17/1800Z 13.0N 144.0W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:17 UTC