ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182008 100 PM PST SUN NOV 02 2008 RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS. SOME WELL-DEFINED CURVED BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE FORMED IN THE CENTRAL REGION OF THE SYSTEM...AND THIS INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WARRANTS ITS DESIGNATION AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CYCLONE IS STILL AT LEAST PARTIALLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ BUT THERE IS FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE AREA AND WATER TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 28 DEG C FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY CONSENSUS. BY DAYS 4-5...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR...SO THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE WEAKENING BY THAT TIME. THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST OR 280/13. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...ALONG WITH THE DEEP LAYER BAM...TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SUCH A TRACK MIGHT MATERIALIZE IF THE CYCLONE WERE TO STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH DO NOT DEPICT MUCH STRENGTHENING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 8.6N 109.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 03/0600Z 8.7N 111.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 03/1800Z 9.0N 113.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 04/0600Z 9.5N 115.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 04/1800Z 10.2N 116.6W 50 KT 72HR VT 05/1800Z 11.5N 119.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 06/1800Z 12.5N 122.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 07/1800Z 13.5N 125.0W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:48 UTC