ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008 200 PM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008 THE LARGE EYE OF NORBERT MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AROUND 1630 UTC. SINCE THAT TIME THE CENTER HAS TRACKED ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND IT IS NOW EMERGING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS TILTED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED A LITTLE SOUTHWEST OF THE EYE THAT IS SEEN IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 85 KT...BASED ON THE RECENT SATELLITE APPEARANCE. A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THAT FLEW INTO ODILE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IS SCHEDULED TO MAKE A PASS THROUGH NORBERT VERY SOON...AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE HURRICANE'S STRENGTH. THE CREW OF THE AIRCRAFT IS COMMENDED FOR THE LONG HOURS SPENT ATTEMPTING TO FLYING INTO BOTH EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN TROPICAL CYCLONES TODAY. NORBERT HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST AROUND 13 KT. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WHICH BRINGS NORBERT INTO MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE THE HURRICANE MAKES FINAL LANDFALL...DESPITE A 12 HOUR FORECAST WHICH MUST ACCOUNT FOR WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL. THEREAFTER...NORBERT SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO. MOISTURE FROM NORBERT IS STILL FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/2100Z 25.2N 110.9W 85 KT 12HR VT 12/0600Z 27.2N 109.5W 65 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 12/1800Z 30.5N 106.8W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA NNNN
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