ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112008 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2008 IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF JULIO...BUT AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 18Z...OBSERVATIONS FROM LA PAZ...AND A HEALTHY DOSE OF CONTINUITY PLACE THE CENTER NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE ASCAT PASS SUGGESTED THAT JULIO HAD WEAKENENED A BIT AND THE INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 40 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/11. JULIO IS MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IN ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS. IN THIS PATTERN...THE MOST LIKELY TRACK IS A PATH MORE OR LESS UP THE PENINSULA WITH A GRADUAL BEND TO THE RIGHT THAT COULD PLACE THE CENTER IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEFORE THE STEERING CURRENTS COLLAPSE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. COLD WATER LIES AHEAD IF THE CENTER STAYS OFF THE WEST COAST...AND THE TERRAIN OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ISN'T GOING TO DO JULIO ANY FAVORS EITHER. THUS WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND JULIO MAY WELL BECOME A DEPRESSION FASTER THAN INDICATED HERE. EVEN IF THE CENTER EMERGES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF...BY THEN THE GLOBAL MODELS PLACE THE CYCLONE UNDER STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT ANY REDEVELOPMENT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0300Z 24.4N 111.1W 40 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 25/1200Z 25.7N 111.9W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 26/0000Z 27.4N 112.5W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 26/1200Z 28.8N 113.0W 25 KT...OVER WATER 48HR VT 27/0000Z 29.5N 113.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 28/0000Z 30.0N 113.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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