ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102008 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 16 2008 THE CONVECTIVE BURST THAT DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING...LEAVING DEBRIS CLOUDINESS THAT IS MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD...AND AGAIN EXPOSING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ISELLE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB SUPPORT 25-30 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT. WITH STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR FORECAST TO CONTINUE AND THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS BECOMING MORE SPORADIC...ISELLE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. ISELLE HAS MOVED SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD TODAY...BUT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN SOON. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE DISSIPATION. DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHWARD INITIAL LOCATION...THE NEW TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD...BUT REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 18.4N 112.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 18.6N 113.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 17/1800Z 18.8N 114.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 18/0600Z 19.0N 115.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 18/1800Z 19.1N 115.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 19/1800Z 19.1N 117.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:40 UTC