ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102008 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 15 2008 ISELLE IS MOVING ERRATICALLY THIS EVENING...AS THE INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR DISPLACES THE EXPOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION FARTHER FROM THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST. DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 AND 35 KT...AND A 1726Z ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATED WINDS OF 30 KT OR LESS. BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAKENING THROUGH THE PERIOD...SURRENDERING TO THE HARSH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS. IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT THE SHIPS AND THE LGEM SUGGEST AN EVEN EARLIER REMNANT LOW SCENARIO...IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS...WHICH COULD COME TO FRUITION. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 320/2...AN EXPECTED TEMPORARY DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD RESUME DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST. BECAUSE OF THE BRIEF NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS DERIVED FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 18.2N 111.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 18.4N 111.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 17/0000Z 18.7N 112.4W 30 KT 36HR VT 17/1200Z 18.9N 113.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 18/0000Z 19.0N 114.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 19/0000Z 19.0N 116.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 20/0000Z 19.0N 117.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:40 UTC