ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092008 800 AM PDT THU AUG 07 2008 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...BUT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS KEEPING THE CENTER LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF VERY STRONG CONVECTION. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED EXCEPT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED BUT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE 12 UTC CLASSIFICATION. SO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX A LITTLE ALLOWING HERNAN TO STRENGTHEN SOME AND THE CYCLONE COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. A GRADUAL DECLINE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TO COMMENCE AT THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE AND FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IN FACT...THE GFDL IS THE ONLY MODEL WHICH BRIEFLY BRINGS HERNAN TO HURRICANE STATUS. HERNAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SINCE THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...AS HERNAN WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT SHOULD TURN MORE TO WEST STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/1500Z 14.8N 115.1W 50 KT 12HR VT 08/0000Z 15.4N 116.7W 55 KT 24HR VT 08/1200Z 16.0N 118.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 09/0000Z 17.0N 120.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 09/1200Z 17.5N 122.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 10/1200Z 18.5N 125.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 11/1200Z 19.0N 128.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 12/1200Z 19.0N 132.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:38 UTC