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Tropical Storm GENEVIEVE (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2008
 
THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS AT TIMES BEEN A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC
RECENTLY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT BASED ON
THE RISE IN SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES.  MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM
SSMIS BACK AT 03Z SUGGESTS THE CYCLONE IS STILL A BIT TILTED IN THE
VERTICAL...BUT PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS SO THAN EARLIER.  THE
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH GENEVIEVE ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 26.5
CELSIUS AND WILL DECREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MEANWHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR APPEARS TO BE MODEST OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  AS A RESULT A TEMPORARY
STRENGTHENING TREND IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM BY NEARLY ALL OF
THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL FLIRTING
WITH HURRICANE STATUS...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST PEAKS AT 60
KT IN 24 HOURS.  IT CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT GENEVIEVE
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY...BUT NOT LIKELY THEREAFTER.  COOLER
WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND THAT TIME SHOULD INDUCE
STEADY WEAKENING UNTIL THE CYCLONE DEGENERATES OVER SSTS LESS THAN
24 CELSIUS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY ABOUT GENEVIEVE'S MOTION OF
285/8...WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN EVEN MORE TYPICAL 285/11 OR
SO BY THIS TIME TOMORROW...AS THE CYCLONE SPEEDS UP A LITTLE WITHIN
DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  NOT UNTIL
THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BECOMES A MORE SHALLOW CIRCULATION OVER
COOLER WATERS IN A FEW DAYS WILL THE HEADING CHANGE...TO A MORE
WESTWARD MOTION IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS
JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE GFS/GFDL/HWRF SIDE...OR TO THE NORTH OF...THE
CONSENSUS...WHICH ALSO REPRESENTS A SMALL NORTHWARD SHIFT COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0900Z 16.0N 114.5W    55 KT
 12HR VT     25/1800Z 16.4N 116.0W    60 KT
 24HR VT     26/0600Z 17.0N 118.2W    60 KT
 36HR VT     26/1800Z 17.6N 120.4W    55 KT
 48HR VT     27/0600Z 18.2N 122.6W    45 KT
 72HR VT     28/0600Z 19.5N 127.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     29/0600Z 19.5N 131.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     30/0600Z 19.5N 134.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 
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