ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082008 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2008 A 0054 UTC QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS REVEALED A FEW PLAUSIBLE... ALBEIT RAIN-FLAGGED WIND VECTORS AS HIGH AS 40 KT NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO T3.0 SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 40 KT. GENEVIEVE WAS MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALTHOUGH IT NOW APPEARS IT MAY BE STARTING TO SLOW DOWN WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/13. THE DECREASE IN SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO SHIFTS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THEREAFTER...THE SUITE OF DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING GREATER SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY AT THE DAY 3-5 PERIODS ALTHOUGH THERE IS A NOTICEABLE SOUTHWARD SHIFT COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD BUT STILL LIES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CLUSTER OF DYNAMICAL MODELS. GENEVIEVE IS VERY NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE COLD WAKE GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO AND WILL REMAIN OVER THIS FEATURE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. SHIPS IS STILL THE ONLY MODEL THAT STRENGTHENS GENEVIEVE TO A HURRICANE...BUT SINCE IT DOES NOT RECOGNIZE THE COLD WAKE...IT MAY BE RELYING ON SST DATA THAT IS UP TO 5C TOO WARM. THEREFORE...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS THE CYCLONE JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BY ASSUMING THE STORM WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME STRENGTHENING MUCH OVER THE COOLER WATERS. THIS IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER INTENSITY MODELS...SOME OF WHICH BARELY GIVE GENEVIEVE A FIGHTING CHANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 14.6N 105.2W 40 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 15.0N 106.9W 45 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 15.4N 108.8W 50 KT 36HR VT 23/1800Z 15.8N 110.6W 50 KT 48HR VT 24/0600Z 16.0N 112.3W 55 KT 72HR VT 25/0600Z 16.0N 115.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 26/0600Z 16.0N 117.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 27/0600Z 16.0N 120.5W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER BERG/RHOME NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:37 UTC