ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 20 2008 LATEST VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FAUSTO CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS PRESENT INTENSITY. TAFB AND SAB DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN AT A CONSENSUS T4.5 AND A PREVIOUS UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE SUPPORTS KEEPING FAUSTO AS AN 80 KNOT HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS. ALTHOUGH THE WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL...THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER MUCH COOLER SSTS THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS SUGGEST THAT FAUSTO WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND IT WILL DISSIPATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE CURRENT MOVEMENT OF FAUSTO IS 310/11. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE U.S. SOUTHWEST. MOST TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FAUSTO WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK AND EVENTUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER ON IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THIS GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICAL FORECAST TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 19.5N 114.4W 80 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 20.3N 116.0W 70 KT 24HR VT 22/0000Z 21.2N 117.9W 60 KT 36HR VT 22/1200Z 21.8N 120.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 23/0000Z 22.3N 121.8W 35 KT 72HR VT 24/0000Z 23.7N 125.1W 25 KT 96HR VT 25/0000Z 25.0N 127.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 26/0000Z 26.5N 130.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER SISKO/FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:36 UTC