ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST REMAINING BAND SITUATED OVER THE WEST SEMICIRCLE. AN ANALYSIS OF THE 0238Z QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES INDICATED WINDS OF 50 KT OR LESS....BUT THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES BASED ON CONSTRAINTS WERE 55 AND 65 KT. SO AS A COMPROMISE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 55 KT WHICH COULD POSSIBLY BE A BIT GENEROUS. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD TAKE ITS TOLL ON ELIDA...WEAKENING THE SYSTEM WITH TIME. THIS IS INDICATED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST AND MATCHES A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM AND THE GFDL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN ESTIMATED 270/11...WITHIN THE LOW TO MID LAYER STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. LITTLE DEVIATION IN FORWARD SPEED AND MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. WIND RADII ADJUSTED BASED ON A 0238Z QUIKSCAT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0900Z 17.5N 125.9W 55 KT 12HR VT 18/1800Z 17.4N 127.8W 45 KT 24HR VT 19/0600Z 17.2N 130.2W 40 KT 36HR VT 19/1800Z 17.0N 132.5W 35 KT 48HR VT 20/0600Z 16.8N 135.1W 30 KT 72HR VT 21/0600Z 16.7N 140.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 22/0600Z 17.0N 145.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 23/0600Z 17.0N 153.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA NNNN
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