ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032008 800 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008 ALTHOUGH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH AGENCIES INDICATE CRISTINA AT DEPRESSION STRENGTH...A STRONG DIURNAL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -80C IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER OF CRISTINA. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY KEEPS CRISTINA AT MINIMUM TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. CRISTINA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WITHIN A LESS THAN FAVORABLE AIR MASS AND OVER COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE ICON INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS...SUGGESTING A WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONSEQUENTLY...CRISTINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/7. THE GLOBAL AND HURRICANE MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL BUILDING OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF CRISTINA...WHICH SHOULD INFLUENCE CRISTINA IN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION. THE FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BASED ON THE CORRECTED DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. WIND RADII ADJUSTED BASED ON A 0232Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 14.5N 127.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 30/0000Z 14.4N 129.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 30/1200Z 14.4N 131.1W 30 KT 36HR VT 01/0000Z 14.2N 133.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 01/1200Z 14.0N 135.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 02/1200Z 14.0N 140.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 03/1200Z 14.0N 144.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 04/1200Z 14.0N 149.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:31 UTC