ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008 800 AM PDT THU JUL 03 2008 MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS RAPIDLY BECOMING DETACHED FROM THE REMAINING CONVECTION. BOTH SHEAR AND COOL WATERS ARE REALLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS AND ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. BORIS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. HOWEVER...BORIS SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 17.8N 129.2W 40 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 18.0N 130.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 04/1200Z 17.8N 131.0W 25 KT 36HR VT 05/0000Z 17.5N 132.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 05/1200Z 17.0N 133.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 06/1200Z 16.0N 136.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 07/1200Z...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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