ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008 800 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2008 THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY. MICROWAVE DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND T-NUMBERS ARE 3.5 AND 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH BORIS IS APPROACHING COOLER WATERS THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE SO A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN THE NEAR TERM IS POSSIBLE. BOTH HWRF AND GFDL INSIST ON SOME STRENGTHENING BUT THE WEAKENING INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. BORIS IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. DUE TO THE FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGER DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST OF BORIS...GLOBAL MODELS ARE WEAKENING THE STEERING CURRENTS BUT MAINTAIN BORIS SOUTH OF A RIDGE. THEREFORE...A WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK IS FORECAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/1500Z 14.8N 120.9W 55 KT 12HR VT 01/0000Z 14.7N 122.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 01/1200Z 14.6N 123.5W 55 KT 36HR VT 02/0000Z 14.6N 124.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 02/1200Z 14.5N 126.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 03/1200Z 14.5N 128.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 04/1200Z 14.5N 129.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 05/1200Z 14.5N 130.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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