ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008 200 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008 THE CENTER IS A LITTLE MORE TUCKED IN THE CONVECTION BUT THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY. DVORAK T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. BORIS IS HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATERS AND INTO MORE STABLE AIR. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AND THIS FORECAST BASICALLY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. BORIS HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS. SOME GLOBAL MODELS ARE CHANGING THEIR TUNE AND ARE NOW KEEPING BORIS SEPARATED FROM THE DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST. CONSEQUENTLY...THESE MODELS KEEP BORIS MOVING WESTWARD. NOW ONLY THE GFS AND THE GFDL INSIST ON MERGING BORIS WITH THE NEW DISTURBANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL BORIS BECOMES A REMNANT LOW IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 14.9N 117.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 30/0600Z 15.0N 118.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 30/1800Z 15.0N 120.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 01/0600Z 15.0N 121.5W 35 KT 48HR VT 01/1800Z 15.0N 122.5W 30 KT 72HR VT 02/1800Z 15.0N 124.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 03/1800Z 15.0N 126.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 04/1800Z 15.0N 128.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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