ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008 200 PM PDT THU MAY 29 2008 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE EYE FEATURE IS CROSSING THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR THE CITY OF LEON. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A VERY TIGHT CONVECTIVE COIL SURROUNDING THE EYE FEATURE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. SINCE THE CENTER IS ALREADY MOVING INLAND AND A LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY INTERACTING WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...TORRENTIAL RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ALMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT 8 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE OVER LAND FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS UNTIL DISSIPATION. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY TURNS THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 12.4N 87.0W 55 KT...CROSSING THE COAST 12HR VT 30/0600Z 13.6N 87.3W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 30/1800Z 15.0N 88.0W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 31/0600Z 16.5N 90.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS NNNN
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