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Hurricane OMAR (Text)

ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE OMAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10                  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008               
2100 UTC WED OCT 15 2008                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS
...90 MPH...150 KM/HR.                                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       X       1       5      12
TROP DEPRESSION  X       X       X       1       4      14      22
TROPICAL STORM   2       3       8      18      35      47      45
HURRICANE       98      96      92      82      60      35      21
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       53      35      34      40      36      25      17
HUR CAT 2       39      42      35      24      14       7       3
HUR CAT 3        6      17      19      14       7       3       2
HUR CAT 4        1       2       3       3       3       1       X
HUR CAT 5        1       1       1       1       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   85KT    90KT    90KT    85KT    75KT    60KT    50KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
PONCE          34 17   3(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
SAN JUAN       34 25   5(30)   1(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
SAN JUAN       50  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34 78  13(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
SAINT THOMAS   50 25  22(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
SAINT THOMAS   64  6  14(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
SAINT CROIX    34 96   2(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
SAINT CROIX    50 67  13(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
SAINT CROIX    64 35  15(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34 36  49(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  3  32(35)   1(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
SAINT MAARTEN  64  1  10(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 21  28(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  2   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
BARBUDA        34  4  23(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
BARBUDA        50  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ANTIGUA        34  4  13(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  3   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
AVES           34 18   2(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
DOMINICA       34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
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