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Tropical Storm IKE (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2008
 
IKE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ORGANIZATION
AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG AROUND THE
STORM...WITH AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO LACK A WELL-DEFINED
INNER CORE AND...UNTIL THIS INNER CORE BECOMES ESTABLISHED...
STRENGTHENING WILL BE SLOW.  HOWEVER...ONCE AN EYEWALL BECOMES
DEFINED THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION SHOULD INCREASE.  THE ONLY
OBVIOUS IMPEDIMENT TO STRENGTHENING IS AN INCREASE IN NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR AROUND 48 HOURS AS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  THIS IS NEAR THE HIGH END OF MUCH OF OUR NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH THE HWRF SHOWS A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER
HURRICANE NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME SLIGHT ACCELERATION AND THE LATEST GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE FIXES REQUIRE A BIT OF A NORTHWARD
ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK.  INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 285/16.  THE
TRACK FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS SEEMS STRAIGHTFORWARD AS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF IKE CONTINUES TO PUSH THE STORM
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST.  LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY.  THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A
BUILDING OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF IKE IN 3 TO 5 DAYS...AND THIS WOULD FORCE A TURN TOWARD THE
LEFT.  HOWEVER THE TRACK MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL TURN.  THE GFDL AND DEEP-LAYER BAM ARE THE
SOUTHERNMOST AND BRING IKE OVER HISPANIOLA WHEREAS THE U.K. MET
OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH IS ALSO A CREDIBLE MODEL...TAKES THE
CYCLONE TO MUCH HIGHER LATITUDES.  ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT NORTHWARD
ADJUSTMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE RECENT
TRACK...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND LIES NEAR THE LATEST DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0900Z 20.6N  49.6W    55 KT
 12HR VT     03/1800Z 21.3N  52.2W    65 KT
 24HR VT     04/0600Z 22.2N  55.1W    70 KT
 36HR VT     04/1800Z 22.8N  58.0W    75 KT
 48HR VT     05/0600Z 23.2N  60.8W    80 KT
 72HR VT     06/0600Z 23.0N  66.0W    85 KT
 96HR VT     07/0600Z 22.5N  71.0W    90 KT
120HR VT     08/0600Z 22.5N  76.0W    95 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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