ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142007 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 30 2007 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS WELL-EMBEDDED IN THE DENSE OVERCAST...WITH SOME HINTS OF INNER BANDING FEATURES. JULIETTE WAS PROBABLY A LITTLE STRONGER EARLIER TODAY...NEAR 50 KT. HOWEVER ON RECENT IMAGES THE CLOUD TOPS ARE SEEN TO BE WARMING...SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 45 KT. THE SYSTEM MAY ALREADY BE PAST PEAK INTENSITY AND IS HEADED FOR A MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING TO REMNANT LOW STATUS IN 2-3 DAYS...ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT COULD OCCUR SOONER IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP IN THE CYCLONE. IN FACT...THE GFDL AND HWRF MODEL RUNS WEAKEN JULIETTE MORE RAPIDLY THAN INDICATED HERE. BASED ON VISIBLE IMAGES...THE CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. HOWEVER THE MOTION IS STILL ESTIMATED TO BE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330/11. JULIETTE IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. AS THE STORM LOSES ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND BECOMES A SHALLOWER CIRCULATION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...IT SHOULD BE STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS FLOW IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL TO BE VERY WEAK...SO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS VERY LITTLE MOTION IN 2-3 DAYS. THE FORECAST TRACK LEANS TOWARD THE SHALLOW BAM FORECAST BUT IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/2100Z 19.7N 113.9W 45 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 21.2N 114.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 01/1800Z 22.6N 115.3W 40 KT 36HR VT 02/0600Z 23.6N 115.8W 35 KT 48HR VT 02/1800Z 24.2N 116.2W 30 KT 72HR VT 03/1800Z 24.5N 116.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:05 UTC