ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102007 800 PM PDT WED AUG 29 2007 LATEST CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES GIL HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. IN FACT...THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IMPLYING A POORLY ORGANIZED CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND SO IS THE INITIAL ADVISORY INTENSITY. GIL IS LOCATED WITHIN A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR AND A RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS. ADDITIONALLY...THERE ARE COOLER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THESE FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING AND GIL IS LIKELY AT OR VERY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS FOR A LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM. THEREAFTER... WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WITH GIL DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 3 DAYS...IF NOT SOONER. GIL APPEARS TO BE MOVING MORE TOWARDS THE WEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 270/12. THE CYCLONE IS SOUTH OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION AS LONG AS THE CYCLONE MAINTAINS SOME VERTICAL DEPTH. BEYOND 24 HOURS...GIL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A PROGRESSIVELY SHALLOW SYSTEM WITH A TURN TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0300Z 19.6N 112.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 30/1200Z 19.8N 113.6W 40 KT 24HR VT 31/0000Z 19.9N 115.8W 35 KT 36HR VT 31/1200Z 19.8N 118.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 01/0000Z 19.6N 120.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 02/0000Z 19.0N 124.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:00 UTC