ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092007 200 AM PDT THU AUG 09 2007 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THERE ARE TWO WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS AROUND THE CENTER...AND THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SUGGESTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. FLOSSIE COULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN A DAY OR TWO...AS INDICATED BY SEVERAL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INCLUDING CLIMATOLOGY. BEYOND 3 DAYS...FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS RESULTING IN GRADUAL WEAKENING. FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN A PERSISTENT DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL TURN TO WEST-NORTHWEST IS POSSIBLE AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WEAKENS. MOST OF THE MODELS KEEP FLOSSY MOVING ON A GENERAL STRAIGHT WESTWARD TRACK WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS A LITTLE MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK BEYOND 3 DAYS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0900Z 13.2N 129.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 09/1800Z 13.3N 131.3W 50 KT 24HR VT 10/0600Z 13.3N 133.8W 60 KT 36HR VT 10/1800Z 13.5N 136.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 11/0600Z 13.5N 138.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 12/0600Z 14.0N 142.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 13/0600Z 14.5N 146.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 14/0600Z 16.0N 150.0W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:00 UTC