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Tropical Storm ERICK (Text)

ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082007               
1500 UTC WED AUG 01 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 133N 1272W 34 41  10(51)   1(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
 12 133N 1272W 50  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 12 133N 1272W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 135N 1290W 34  3  35(38)  11(49)   1(50)   1(51)   X(51)   X(51)
 24 135N 1290W 50  X   5( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 24 135N 1290W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 137N 1306W 34  X  11(11)  27(38)   8(46)   3(49)   X(49)   X(49)
 36 137N 1306W 50  X   X( X)   8( 8)   3(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 36 137N 1306W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 48 139N 1325W 34  X   1( 1)  12(13)  17(30)   9(39)   1(40)   X(40)
 48 139N 1325W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   4(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 48 139N 1325W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 72 140N 1360W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  16(19)   6(25)   2(27)
 72 140N 1360W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 72 140N 1360W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 96 140N 1390W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   9(14)   3(17)
 96 140N 1390W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 96 140N 1390W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 140N 1425W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)
120 140N 1425W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
120 140N 1425W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     40      45      45      45      45      45
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
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