ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082007 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 31 2007 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS AT 0000 UTC FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB INSIST THAT THE SYSTEM IS A TROPICAL STORM. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS. HOWEVER...ERICK IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND VERY DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WOULD ALLOW FOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING ONLY AS INDICATED BY SHIPS. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE. ERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. A STRONG ELONGATED EAST-WEST MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STAY ANCHORED NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH 5 DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP ERICK ON A WESTWARD TRACK TROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GLOBAL MODELS AND BOTH HWRF AND GFDL KEEP ERICK ON A WESTWARD PATH AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0300Z 13.1N 124.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 01/1200Z 13.1N 125.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 02/0000Z 13.5N 128.2W 35 KT 36HR VT 02/1200Z 13.5N 130.5W 35 KT 48HR VT 03/0000Z 13.5N 132.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 04/0000Z 13.5N 136.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 05/0000Z 13.5N 140.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 06/0000Z 13.5N 144.5W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:59 UTC