ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007 200 AM PDT WED JUL 25 2007 THE OVERALL CLOUD SIGNATURE ASSOCIATED WITH DALILA APPEARS A LITTLE LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN 6 HOURS AGO. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING AND THE CONVECTIVE BAND THAT WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE IS BROKEN. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 45-50 KT RANGE. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT BASED ON THESE DATA. DALILA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 330/7. THIS MOTION APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF WEAKNESS WITHIN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. GLOBAL MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THIS WEAKNESS WILL ERODE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO EXPAND WESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE WEST. THE ECMWF...GFDL...AND GFDN MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WEST AND TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT. MOST OF THE RELIABLE TRACK MODELS NOW INDICATE A TURN WESTWARD...AND SOME EVEN SHOW A MOTION A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST BEYOND DAY 4. DESPITE AN OTHERWISE GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...DALILA APPEARS TO BE FEELING THE NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF STABLE AIR. DALILA MAY BE AT OR VERY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY. STILL...THE CYCLONE HAS ANOTHER DAY OR SO WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM WATER. THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS FOR A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT-TERM. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR INTENSIFICATION QUICKLY SHUTS BEYOND 36 HOURS AS DALILA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER MUCH COOLER WATER. INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE LOWER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0900Z 19.0N 111.0W 50 KT 12HR VT 25/1800Z 19.7N 111.6W 55 KT 24HR VT 26/0600Z 20.6N 112.7W 55 KT 36HR VT 26/1800Z 21.4N 114.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 27/0600Z 22.2N 115.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 28/0600Z 23.5N 118.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 29/0600Z 24.0N 121.0W 25 KT 120HR VT 30/0600Z 24.0N 123.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER RHOME NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:59 UTC