ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007 200 AM PDT WED JUL 18 2007 COSME CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF ITS CIRCULATION AS IT MOVES OVER 25C WATERS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 AND 45 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB... RESPECTIVELY. UNFORTUNATELY...THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS MISSED THE CYCLONE. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL WATERS...IT MAY BE APPROPRIATE TO BE NEAR THE LOW END OF THE RANGE OF SATELLITE ESTIMATES...AND SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/10. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING...WITH A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF COSME BEING THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THIS RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A WEST TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE CONSENSUS OF A TIGHTLY PACKED ENSEMBLE OF GUIDANCE MODELS. COSME IS MAINTAINING A RESPECTABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION GIVEN THE SST'S IT IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING. EVEN COOLER WATERS LIE AHEAD...HOWEVER...AND REACH A MINIMUM BEFORE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR COSME TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. AFTER THAT...SST'S ALONG THE TRACK WILL BE INCREASING...AND THERE COULD BE SOME REGENERATION BY 72 HOURS. NONE OF THE EXPLICIT INTENSITY GUIDANCE...INCLUDING SHIPS...NOW SHOWS ANY DECAY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST HANGS ON TO COSME AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGHOUT... ALTHOUGH WESTERLY SHEAR IS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO LATE-PERIOD WEAKENING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0900Z 15.2N 137.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 18/1800Z 15.4N 139.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 19/0600Z 15.7N 141.8W 30 KT 36HR VT 19/1800Z 16.2N 144.7W 30 KT 48HR VT 20/0600Z 16.7N 147.6W 30 KT 72HR VT 21/0600Z 17.5N 153.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 22/0600Z 18.5N 159.0W 25 KT 120HR VT 23/0600Z 18.5N 164.0W 25 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:57 UTC