ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007 200 PM PDT SUN JUL 15 2007 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE TODAY. THE ONCE BROAD CIRCULATION HAS BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED AND THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION. OUTER BANDING FEATURES SURROUND THE CENTER...BUT CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. 1800 UTC DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND 2.5/35 KT FROM SAB. IN ADDITION....A 1500 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION SHOWED SEEMINGLY RELIABLE 30 KT WINDS...BUT WAS INCONCLUSIVE ABOUT ANYTHING STRONGER. BASED ON THESE DATA...SIX-E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM COSME WITH 35 KT WINDS...LEANING TOWARD THE LOWER DVORAK ESTIMATES FOR NOW. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/7. THE STEERING MECHANISM AND TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THIS MORNING. COSME IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THEN CURVE MORE TOWARD THE WEST ONCE THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN. COSME SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ALLOWING FOR SOME STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. THEREAFTER...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS COSME MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONCE AGAIN A CONSENSUS OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 12.7N 128.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 13.3N 128.9W 45 KT 24HR VT 16/1800Z 14.0N 130.3W 45 KT 36HR VT 17/0600Z 14.5N 132.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 17/1800Z 14.7N 134.3W 40 KT 72HR VT 18/1800Z 15.0N 138.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 19/1800Z 16.0N 143.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 20/1800Z 17.5N 148.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:57 UTC