ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 15 2007 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A LARGE CIRCULATION DEFINED BY A FEW BANDING FEATURES AND LITTLE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM OCEAN WOULD FAVOR SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY REACH COOLER WATERS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...INHIBITING ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE MOVING ERRATICALLY WITHIN A LARGER GYRE. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 295/4. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER THE CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS. INITIALLY...DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST A MORE AGGRESSIVE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...BUT ALL AGREE ON TURNING THE CYCLONE WESTWARD LATER IN FORECAST PERIOD... AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 11.5N 127.6W 25 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 11.9N 128.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 13.0N 129.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 16/1800Z 14.0N 131.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 17/0600Z 14.5N 133.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 18/0600Z 15.0N 136.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 19/0600Z 15.5N 140.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 20/0600Z 16.0N 144.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:57 UTC