ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007 800 PM PDT FRI JUN 01 2007 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND SSMI AND WINDSAT MICROWAVE PASSES DEPICT A WELL DEVELOPED BANDING FEATURE EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. A FEW OVERSHOOTING TOPS ARE EVIDENT AS WELL APPROXIMATELY 30 NM EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT T3.0 (45 KT)...AND SO WILL THE INITIAL INTENSITY. BARBARA CONTINUES TO MOVE WITHIN A PRONOUNCED BREAK IN A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...AND INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT 065/7. DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN SPLIT AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WITH THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY BASED ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...GFDL AND NOGAPS...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN LONG ENOUGH TO INFLUENCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...IT WILL LIKELY PARALLEL THE COAST AS INDICATED BY THE UKMET...GFS...CANADIAN CONSENSUS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE LANDFALL...HOWEVER...IF BARBARA REMAINS OFFSHORE THE INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE LOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0300Z 13.9N 93.0W 45 KT 12HR VT 02/1200Z 14.4N 92.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 03/0000Z 15.3N 92.0W 35 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 03/1200Z 16.2N 91.6W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:55 UTC