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Tropical Depression ONE-E (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007
200 AM PDT MON MAY 28 2007

THE DEPRESSION HAS MAINTAINED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY
LOOKS HEALTHIER THAN SIX HOURS AGO.  MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THE
CENTER IS BETWEEN TWO CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION...A MORE VIABLE
POSITION THAN TWELVE HOURS AGO WHEN THE DEPRESSION WAS EXPOSED. 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 KT...AND WITH THE
REFRESHED SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE
INCREASED TO 30 KT. 

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY.  IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL
WHETHER THE SHORT-TERM INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION IS INDICATIVE OF
THE LONGER-TERM POTENTIAL OF THE SYSTEM.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM SSTS IS BEING COUNTERED
BY LIMITED THERMODYNAMICS.  HOWEVER...INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS HIGHER
THAN SIX HOURS AGO.  THE GFDL EVEN FORECASTS THE DEPRESSION TO BE
NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THREE DAYS.  IN DEFERENCE TO THE
GUIDANCE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE RAISED SLIGHTLY BUT STILL
BELOW BOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS.  OVERALL...THIS HAS TO BE
CONSIDERED A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS WESTWARD OR 270/5...A LITTLE FASTER
THAN BEFORE.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO GENERALLY FASTER THAN
EARLIER...DUE IN PART TO MOST MODELS SHOWING LESS INTERACTION WITH
AN ITCZ DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST.  A RIDGE IS STILL FORECAST TO
BUILD NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE ORIENTATION OF
THE RIDGE WOULD ALLOW FOR A WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THEREAFTER.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS
REASONABLE CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...ECMWF...UKMET...AND
NOGAPS MODELS.   
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/0900Z 13.1N 112.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     28/1800Z 13.1N 113.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     29/0600Z 13.0N 113.8W    35 KT
 36HR VT     29/1800Z 12.9N 114.5W    40 KT
 48HR VT     30/0600Z 12.8N 115.2W    40 KT
 72HR VT     31/0600Z 12.6N 116.6W    40 KT
 96HR VT     01/0600Z 12.5N 118.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     02/0600Z 12.5N 119.5W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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