ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007 0900 UTC SAT SEP 29 2007 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT... - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 174N 543W 34 17 14(31) 1(32) X(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) 12 174N 543W 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 12 174N 543W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 185N 557W 34 2 13(15) 5(20) 2(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) 24 185N 557W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 24 185N 557W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 200N 570W 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 5(17) 3(20) X(20) 1(21) 36 200N 570W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 36 200N 570W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 48 210N 582W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 6(17) 2(19) X(19) 48 210N 582W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 48 210N 582W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 230N 605W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 4(16) 2(18) 72 230N 605W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 72 230N 605W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 96 245N 630W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 2(14) 96 245N 630W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 96 245N 630W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 120 255N 650W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 120 255N 650W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 120 255N 650W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30 25 25 25 30 30 30 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:50 UTC