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Tropical Storm KAREN (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122007               
0300 UTC SAT SEP 29 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 170N  532W 34 33  22(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)
 12 170N  532W 50  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 12 170N  532W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 182N  549W 34  2  20(22)   8(30)   1(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 24 182N  549W 50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 24 182N  549W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 195N  563W 34  X   5( 5)  10(15)   6(21)   2(23)   1(24)   X(24)
 36 195N  563W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 36 195N  563W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 207N  576W 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   6(18)   1(19)   1(20)
 48 207N  576W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 48 207N  576W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 230N  600W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   3(15)   2(17)
 72 230N  600W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 72 230N  600W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 245N  625W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)   2(14)
 96 245N  625W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 96 245N  625W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 255N  645W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)
120 255N  645W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
120 255N  645W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     30      25      25      30      30      30
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:50 UTC