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Tropical Storm KAREN (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122007               
2100 UTC THU SEP 27 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 155N  498W 34 64  15(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   1(80)
 12 155N  498W 50 17   5(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 12 155N  498W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 168N  515W 34  4  41(45)  11(56)   2(58)   2(60)   X(60)   X(60)
 24 168N  515W 50  X  13(13)   5(18)   1(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 24 168N  515W 64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
 36 178N  528W 34  1  12(13)  26(39)   7(46)   3(49)   X(49)   1(50)
 36 178N  528W 50  X   2( 2)   9(11)   3(14)   1(15)   1(16)   X(16)
 36 178N  528W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 48 187N  540W 34  X   3( 3)  14(17)  15(32)   6(38)   1(39)   1(40)
 48 187N  540W 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   3(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 48 187N  540W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 72 205N  555W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)  11(23)   7(30)   2(32)
 72 205N  555W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
 72 205N  555W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
 
 96 225N  565W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   7(20)   3(23)
 96 225N  565W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
 96 225N  565W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 240N  585W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   4(13)
120 240N  585W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
120 240N  585W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     45     45      45      45      40      40      40
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:50 UTC