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Tropical Storm KAREN (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122007               
0300 UTC THU SEP 27 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.                             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 139N  467W 34 91   5(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
 12 139N  467W 50 74   7(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)
 12 139N  467W 64  9   5(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
 24 152N  487W 34 16  52(68)   8(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
 24 152N  487W 50  1  45(46)   7(53)   1(54)   X(54)   1(55)   X(55)
 24 152N  487W 64  X   9( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
 36 165N  505W 34  1  17(18)  32(50)   5(55)   2(57)   X(57)   1(58)
 36 165N  505W 50  X   4( 4)  22(26)   5(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 36 165N  505W 64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
 48 175N  519W 34  X   4( 4)  19(23)  14(37)   7(44)   1(45)   1(46)
 48 175N  519W 50  X   X( X)   7( 7)   9(16)   3(19)   X(19)   1(20)
 48 175N  519W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
 72 194N  547W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  15(22)   6(28)   3(31)
 72 194N  547W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)   1(11)
 72 194N  547W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
 
 96 210N  570W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   9(18)   3(21)
 96 210N  570W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)
 96 210N  570W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
120 225N  585W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   4(15)
120 225N  585W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
120 225N  585W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     60     60      55      50      45      45      45
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:50 UTC