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Tropical Storm KAREN (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122007               
1500 UTC TUE SEP 25 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 10.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 112N  407W 34 42  15(57)   X(57)   1(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
 12 112N  407W 50  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 12 112N  407W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 118N  435W 34  1  40(41)  13(54)   2(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
 24 118N  435W 50  X   5( 5)   6(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 24 118N  435W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 125N  461W 34  X   4( 4)  40(44)  10(54)   2(56)   X(56)   1(57)
 36 125N  461W 50  X   X( X)  10(10)   8(18)   2(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 36 125N  461W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 48 139N  483W 34  X   X( X)  12(12)  27(39)  11(50)   1(51)   1(52)
 48 139N  483W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   6(19)   X(19)   1(20)
 48 139N  483W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
 
 72 172N  512W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  25(30)   8(38)   2(40)
 72 172N  512W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   4(14)   1(15)
 72 172N  512W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
 
 96 200N  530W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  14(25)   4(29)
 96 200N  530W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   2(11)
 96 200N  530W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
 
120 225N  540W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   6(20)
120 225N  540W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)
120 225N  540W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     40     45      55      60      60      55      55
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:50 UTC