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Tropical Storm INGRID (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM INGRID WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007               
0900 UTC SAT SEP 15 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 172N  540W 34 21   5(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)   1(28)   X(28)
 12 172N  540W 50  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
 12 172N  540W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 183N  556W 34  3  16(19)   5(24)   2(26)   1(27)   X(27)   1(28)
 24 183N  556W 50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 24 183N  556W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 191N  569W 34  X   8( 8)  10(18)   4(22)   3(25)   1(26)   1(27)
 36 191N  569W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 36 191N  569W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 199N  582W 34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   8(15)   5(20)   2(22)   X(22)
 48 199N  582W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 48 199N  582W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 215N  595W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   8(14)   5(19)   1(20)
 72 215N  595W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 72 215N  595W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 235N  605W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   5(13)   2(15)
 96 235N  605W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 96 235N  605W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 255N  615W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)
120 255N  615W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
120 255N  615W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     30     30      30      30      30      30      30
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER MAINELLI                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:47 UTC