ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 1500 UTC SUN NOV 19 2006 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT... - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 154N 1058W 34 14 7(21) 2(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 12 154N 1058W 50 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 12 154N 1058W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24 156N 1062W 34 8 9(17) 3(20) X(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) 24 156N 1062W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 24 156N 1062W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 158N 1072W 34 1 5( 6) 6(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) 36 158N 1072W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 36 158N 1072W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 48 160N 1085W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) 48 160N 1085W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 48 160N 1085W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 72 160N 1105W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 72 160N 1105W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 160N 1105W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30 30 25 20 20 0 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 19-Nov-2006 14:40:04 UTC