ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 0300 UTC WED NOV 15 2006 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 12(14) 6(20) 1(21) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) 6(21) 1(22) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 14(22) 4(26) 1(27) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 11(19) 3(22) X(22) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) X(12) P MALDONADO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 128N 1042W 34 87 12(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 12 128N 1042W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 12 128N 1042W 64 18 10(28) 3(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) 24 131N 1037W 34 55 23(78) 5(83) 3(86) 2(88) X(88) X(88) 24 131N 1037W 50 16 28(44) 7(51) 3(54) 2(56) 1(57) X(57) 24 131N 1037W 64 4 16(20) 6(26) 2(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) 36 136N 1035W 34 20 39(59) 11(70) 6(76) 5(81) X(81) 1(82) 36 136N 1035W 50 3 22(25) 13(38) 7(45) 3(48) X(48) 1(49) 36 136N 1035W 64 X 9( 9) 9(18) 4(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) 48 146N 1036W 34 2 19(21) 24(45) 14(59) 10(69) 1(70) 1(71) 48 146N 1036W 50 X 4( 4) 12(16) 10(26) 8(34) 1(35) X(35) 48 146N 1036W 64 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) 72 165N 1045W 34 1 1( 2) 6( 8) 14(22) 22(44) 5(49) 1(50) 72 165N 1045W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 2(18) X(18) 72 165N 1045W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 96 175N 1055W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 19(27) 8(35) 1(36) 96 175N 1055W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 96 175N 1055W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 120 185N 1065W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 11(13) 8(21) 3(24) 120 185N 1065W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 120 185N 1065W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65 75 80 80 75 65 55 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER RHOME NNNN
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