ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 100 PM PST WED NOV 15 2006 SERGIO HAS DEVELOPED A TYPICAL HURRICANE CLOUD PATTERN WITH A DISTINCT BUT SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THERE ARE PLENTY OF CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND THE OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SUPPORT A CURRENT INTENSITY OF AT LEAST 95 KNOTS. THERE IS ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE SHEAR IS LOW...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS SERGIO ENCOUNTERS HIGHER SHEAR BEYOND 3 DAYS. THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE IS NOW TAKING A MORE EASTWARD TRACK. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH HAS BEEN FORCING THE HURRICANE SOUTHEASTWARD IS FORECAST TO CHANGE AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE HURRICANE. THIS EXPECTED FLOW PATTERN SHOULD FORCE SERGIO ON A VERY SLOW NORTHERLY TRACK DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH IN FACT BRINGS THE CYCLONE OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND CABO CORRIENTES ON MAINLAND MEXICO IN ABOUT 4 TO 5 DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 12.0N 103.6W 95 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 12.0N 103.3W 100 KT 24HR VT 16/1800Z 12.8N 103.4W 105 KT 36HR VT 17/0600Z 14.0N 103.7W 100 KT 48HR VT 17/1800Z 15.0N 104.0W 90 KT 72HR VT 18/1800Z 16.5N 105.5W 80 KT 96HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 106.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 20/1800Z 20.0N 107.5W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 15-Nov-2006 20:35:04 UTC