ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 100 PM PST TUE NOV 14 2006 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF SERGIO CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH A DISTINCT CURVED BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE 45 KT AT 1800 UTC. SINCE THEN...THE BANDING FEATURE AND OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE STORM HAVE BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND IT APPEARS THAT AN EYE IS TRYING TO FORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SERGIO HAS MOVED LITTLE TODAY...AND RECENTLY HAS BEEN DRIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD. LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICTS THE CURRENTLY WEAK STEERING PATTERN TO PERSIST. AFTER THAT...THE TRACK GUIDANCE DIVERGES. ONE SCENARIO...FAVORED BY THE UKMET AND NOGAPS...MAINTAINS A WEAK STEERING PATTERN AND MEANDERS SERGIO OFF THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO. A SECOND SCENARIO...OFFERED BY THE GFDL...ECMWF...AND FSSE...TAKES THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD WEST OF THE BAJA COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SECOND OPTION AND IS JUST EAST OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...POSSIBLY RAPID...WITH LIGHT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND A WARM DEEP OCEAN. THE GFDL IS THE MOST ROBUST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND MAKES SERGIO A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THREE DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MORE CONSERVATIVE... TAKING THE CYCLONE ONLY TO 70 KT IN 2 DAYS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE TWO EXTREMES...AND IS ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 12.8N 104.5W 50 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 13.0N 104.7W 60 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 13.1N 104.8W 70 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 13.3N 104.9W 80 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 14.0N 105.0W 80 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 15.5N 105.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 18/1800Z 16.5N 105.5W 75 KT 120HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 106.5W 70 KT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 14-Nov-2006 21:00:03 UTC