ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 400 PM PDT WED OCT 25 2006 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS RAPIDLY BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH DEEP CONVECTION RACING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE PURPOSE OF THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO DOWNGRADE PAUL TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...LOWER THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING... AND ADJUST THE TRACK FORECAST. PAUL HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD OR 360 AT 7 KT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS OR SO AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES. NO SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM STILL POSES A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THREAT OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/2300Z 24.4N 108.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 26/0600Z 25.0N 108.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 25-Oct-2006 22:55:03 UTC