ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006 200 PM PDT MON OCT 09 2006 THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN HAS BEEN MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION IN A SPRAWLING BAND OVER THE SYSTEM'S NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. WHILE THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB OF 35 AND 45 KT...RESPECTIVELY...APPEAR TO BE TOO HIGH...THERE IS ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO INITIATE ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 14Z...WHICH SHOWED A FEW RAIN-FLAGGED 35 KT VECTORS BUT A NUMBER OF BELIEVABLE 30 KT VECTORS. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD. THE DEPRESSION IS NEAR THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A DEEP TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE RECURVATURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS THE NOGAPS AND GFDL MODELS IN SHOWING THE DEPRESSION FOLLOWING VERY CLOSELY BEHIND TROPICAL STORM NORMAN TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE DISSIPATES THE DEPRESSION BY 72 HOURS...BUT IT WAS RUN OFF THE MEDIUM BAM MODEL WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK...AND THEREFORE OVER COOLER WATERS AND UNDER MUCH STRONGER SHEAR. WHILE SHEAR COULD DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFDL GUIDANCE IN SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 12.8N 127.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 10/0600Z 13.2N 128.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 10/1800Z 13.7N 128.3W 40 KT 36HR VT 11/0600Z 14.5N 127.8W 40 KT 48HR VT 11/1800Z 16.0N 126.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 12/1800Z 18.0N 122.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 13/1800Z 20.5N 118.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 14/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 09-Oct-2006 20:35:03 UTC